Weather Outlook – October 3, 2019

Northeast Regional Climate Center (NRCC)

A much cooler week is in store compared to last week, with a good chance of a 1-2 inch rainfall event for upstate NY from late Sunday through Tuesday.  After today’s rain, clear skies will reappear later Friday and particularly Saturday.   This will lead to a widespread frost for much of  northern and central NY Saturday morning.  This is right on schedule as the average day of the first fall frost is October 4 in Ithaca.  Saturday will be the coolest day of the week with highs only in the upper 50s to upper 60s across the state and lows from around 30 to the mid to upper 40s down near the city.  After that temperatures should mainly be in the 60s from Sunday-Wednesday with lows in the mid 40-mid 50s most days.  Normal highs for this time of year is low 60s upstate and upper 60s near the City with normal lows mainly in the low 40 to low 50s.  For the period starting next Thursday (10/10).  Temperatures should average slightly above normal and precipitation should be on the lighter side as the long range forecast models show a zonal (west to east) jet stream pattern, which typically does not bring extreme temperature variations or big storm systems.

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Weather Outlook –September 26, 2019

NOAA Northeast Regional Climate Center, Cornell University

Last week temperatures ranged from near normal to 8 degrees above normal. Precipitation has ranged from a trace to 2 inches. Base 50 growing degree-days ranged from 30 to 110.

Today a cold front will bring showers with temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s. Overnight lows will be in 40s to low 50s.

Friday temperatures will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s with mostly sunny skies. Overnight temperatures will range from the upper 40s to low 60s.

Saturday temperatures will range from the 70s to near 80 with showers and thunderstorms possible. A few storms could produce strong, gusty winds and heavy downpours. Overnight temperatures will be in the low to mid 50s.

Sunday highs will be in the mid 60s to mid70s with sunny skies. Overnight temperatures will be in the 40s.

Monday temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s with scattered showers possible. Overnight temperatures will be in the 50s.

Tuesday highs will be in the 70s (near 80 possible) with scattered showers possible. Overnight temperatures will be in the 50s and low 60s.

Wednesday highs will be in the 70s. Overnight temperatures will be in the 50s.

The seven-day precipitation amounts will range from a trace to near 2 inches.

The 8-14 day outlook (Oct 3-9) favors below-normal temperatures for a majority of the state, excluding far western and southeastern NY. Above-normal precipitation is slightly favored for western to central NY.

Maps of 8-14 day outlooks:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

National Weather Service watch/warnings map:
http://www.weather.gov/erh/

US Drought Monitor:
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home.aspx

Drought Impact Reporter:
https://droughtreporter.unl.edu/map/

CLIMOD2 (NRCC data interface):
http://climodtest.nrcc.cornell.edu

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Weather Outlook –September 12, 2019

NOAA Northeast Regional Climate Center, Cornell University

Last week temperatures were near normal to 6 degrees below normal. Precipitation has ranged from a trace to 2 inches. Base 50 growing degree-days ranged from 20 to 100.

Above-normal temperatures this week!

Today will be cooler & cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms and temperatures in the 60s and low 70s. Overnight lows will be in the 40s to mid 50s.

Friday temperatures will be in the 60s to mid 70s with breezy conditions. Overnight temperatures will be in the mid 40s to upper 50s with showers and thunderstorms; locally heavy rainfall is possible.

Saturday temperatures will range from the 60s to 70s with showers and thunderstorms ending from west to east by afternoon/evening. Overnight temperatures will be in the 50s.

Sunday highs will be in the mid 70s to low 80s with mostly clear conditions; northern NY could have a few showers. Overnight temperatures will be in the 50s.

Monday temperatures will be in the mid 70s to low 80s. Overnight temperatures will be in the 50s

Tuesday highs will be in the mid 70s to low 80s. Overnight temperatures will be in the 50s.

Wednesday highs will be in the mid 70s to low 80s. Overnight temperatures will be in the 50s.

The seven-day precipitation amounts will range from a trace one inch.

The 8-14 day outlook (September 19-25) favors above-normal temperatures with high probability and slightly favors above-normal precipitation for most of the state.

Maps of 8-14 day outlooks:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

National Weather Service watch/warnings map:
http://www.weather.gov/erh/

US Drought Monitor
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home.aspx

Drought Impact Reporter:
https://droughtreporter.unl.edu/map/

CLIMOD2 (NRCC data interface):
http://climodtest.nrcc.cornell.edu

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Weather Outlook –August 29, 2019

NOAA Northeast Regional Climate Center, Cornell University

Last week temperatures were near normal to 4 degrees below normal. Precipitation has ranged from a trace to 3 inches. Base 50 growing degree-days ranged from 50 to 130.

High pressure brings sunny but cooler weather today, followed by a cold front bringing some scattered showers of Friday.

Today will be sunny & cooler with temperatures in the 70s. Slight possibility for a shower in the northern areas. Overnight lows will be in the 50s.

Friday temperatures will be in the mid 70s to low 80s with a cold front bringing scattered showers & possibly some storms in central and eastern NY. Overnight temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s.

Saturday will be a dry day with temperatures in the upper 60s to 70s. Overnight temperatures will be in the 50s.

Sunday highs will be in the mid 60s to low 70s with rain likely. Overnight temperatures will be in the 50s.

Monday temperatures will be in the upper 60s to 70s with some lingering showers. Overnight temperatures will be in the 50s.

Tuesday highs will be in the low 80s with clearing conditions. Overnight temperatures will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Wednesday highs will be in the low to mid 80s. Overnight temperatures will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Will keep an eye on Hurricane Dorian…

The seven-day precipitation amounts will range from a tenth of an inch to one and a half inches.

The 8-14 day outlook (September 5-11) favors below-normal temperatures for the state. The outlook slightly favors below-normal precipitation for southeast NY and near-normal precipitation for the rest of the state.

Maps of 8-14 day outlooks:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

National Weather Service watch/warnings map:
http://www.weather.gov/erh/

US Drought Monitor:
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home.aspx

Drought Impact Reporter:
https://droughtreporter.unl.edu/map/

CLIMOD2 (NRCC data interface):
http://climodtest.nrcc.cornell.edu

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Weather Outlook – August 22, 2019

A pretty tranquil week is in store for New York.  Temperatures will be very close to normal and there will be little if any rainfall through late Tuesday at the earliest.  Daytime high temperatures will be mainly in the 70s to low 80s at best through Tuesday and a bit warmer on Wednesday (low- mid 80s). Nights will be clear and crisp with lows from the low 50s to about 60 across the state.  By Wednesday lows will be in 60s everywhere.  Over the weekend upstate locations will see lows in the 40s especially in the North Country and Southern Tier, which is normal for late August.  Expect less than an inch of rain for the week. The week 2 period which will take us into early September appears to be near normal temperature-wise, maybe a tad on the warm side.  There will be a weak trough to our west which will give us a few chances of rain in this period, but I would not expect any big rain producers with such a pattern.

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Weather Outlook – August 15, 2019

NOAA Northeast Regional Climate Center, Cornell University

Last week temperatures ranged within 2 degrees of normal. Precipitation has ranged from a quarter inch to 3 inches. Base 50 growing degree-days ranged from 80 to 160.

An active weather pattern expected for the week. Temperatures and humidity will increase for the end of the weekend into next week.

Thursday a week frontal system will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms, a few strong storms could develop with gusty winds, hail, & brief downpours; northern areas of the state will stay dry and sunny. Temperatures will be in the 70s to near 80. Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s with overnight showers and thunderstorms.

Friday scattered showers and thunderstorms will move through, with increased humidity and temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s. Overnight temperatures will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Saturday temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s with afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Overnight temperatures will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Sunday highs will be in the 80s to near 90 with increased chances for shows and thunderstorms with gusty winds. Overnight temperatures will be in the 60s.

Monday will be warm and humid with temperatures in the 80s to near 90. Showers and thunderstorms are possible. Overnight temperatures will be in the 60s.

Tuesday highs will be in the 80s. Overnight temperatures will be in the 60s.

Wednesday highs will be in the low to mid 80s. A cold front is expected to bring cooler temperatures and lower humidity. Overnight temperatures will be in the 60s.

The seven-day precipitation amounts will range from a quarter inch to one and a quarter inches.

The 8-14 day outlook (August 22-28) favors above-normal temperatures for the state, with high probability. The outlook slightly favors below-normal precipitation for northern and eastern areas and near-normal precipitation for the rest of the state.

Maps of 8-14 day outlooks:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

National Weather Service watch/warnings map:
http://www.weather.gov/erh/

US Drought Monitor
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home.aspx

Drought Impact Reporter:
https://droughtreporter.unl.edu/map/

CLIMOD2 (NRCC data interface):
http://climodtest.nrcc.cornell.edu

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Weather Outlook – August 8, 2019

NOAA Northeast Regional Climate Center, Cornell University

Last week temperatures ranged within 2 degrees of normal. Precipitation has ranged from a hundredth of an inch to near 3 inches. Base 50 growing degree-days ranged from 70 to 170.

A cold front will bring strong to severe storms on Thursday, with cooler and dryer weather following.

Today a cold front will bring afternoon to evening showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds, hail, and heavy rain possible; temperatures in the mid 70s to 80s. Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Friday will be cooler and windy with temperatures in the 70s and isolated afternoon showers. Overnight temperatures will be in the 50s.

Saturday temperatures will be in the 70s with mostly dry conditions, a few isolated showers are possible. Overnight temperatures will be in the 50s.

Sunday will be sunny with highs in the 70s and low 80s. Overnight temperatures will be in the 50s with showers overnight.

Monday temperatures will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s with possible showers. Overnight temperatures will be in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Tuesday highs will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Overnight temperatures will be in mid 50s to low 60s. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday into Wednesday.

Wednesday highs will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Overnight temperatures will be in the mid 50s to low 60s.

The seven-day precipitation amounts will range from a hundredth of an inch to one and a quarter inches.

The 8-14 day outlook (August 15-21) favors near-normal temperatures for most of the state; slightly favors above-normal temperatures for southwest NY. The outlook slightly favors below-normal precipitation for all of the state.

Maps of 8-14 day outlooks:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

National Weather Service watch/warnings map:
http://www.weather.gov/erh/

US Drought Monitor
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home.aspx

Drought Impact Reporter:
https://droughtreporter.unl.edu/map/

CLIMOD2 (NRCC data interface):
http://climodtest.nrcc.cornell.edu

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Immature and Variable Maturity Corn Silage for 2019

Kitty O’Neil, Ph.D, Field Crops & Soils Specialist and Team Leader – North Country Regional Ag Team, Cornell University Cooperative Extension

This has been a challenging year to grow corn in the North Country.  Extremely wet weather delayed or prevented field fitting and corn planting, and saturated soil conditions limited plant development in June and early July.  Despite this poor start, some corn fields look remarkably good, almost normal.  But most fields are weeks behind and may be sporting some version of the ‘rollercoaster’ look – with bare spots, replanted areas and plants of variable height and maturity.  Some fields, or parts of fields, will probably not reach full maturity while the best parts may.  Some corn plants will have normal ears; some plants may have unusually small ears or poor grain fill, or even no ears at all, at harvest time. Dr. Bill Cox at Cornell determined that corn requires 750 to 800 GDD86/50 from silking, to reach 32% moisture, nearly harvesting stage.  This variable maturity will present some problems when chopping silage in a few weeks.  Dr. Larry Chase from Cornell University has outlined some key points to keep in mind during corn silage harvest in this sort of year.  He makes 4 main points.

Late planted and thin corn field in St. Lawrence County, July 1, 2019.
Late planted and thin corn field in St. Lawrence County, July 1, 2019. Photo by K. O’Neil.

Yield will be highly variable and difficult to estimate. Dr. Greg Roth at Penn State suggests that silage yield for corn without ears or with poorly pollinated ears may be 1 ton of wet silage yield (30% DM) per foot of plant height. An older study at Cornell by Dr. Bill Cox indicates that silage yields at the dough stage are 65 to 70% of yields at the milk line stage.  In the same study, yields at the silk stage were 40 to 45% of those obtained at the milk line stage.

Some growers like to estimate yield and quality of standing corn so that it may be sold for silage before harvest.  Estimating yield of highly variable fields is risky.  It’s possible to weigh DM from sampled row lengths and calculate yield of the whole field, but the number of samples required for an accurate estimate in these variable fields is prohibitively high.  Instead, as fields are chopped, silage wagons or trucks should be counted and a representative sample of them should be weighed to calculate a more accurate yield and price.

Harvest management requires some additional planning and checking.  When the most mature plants in a corn field are at the proper dry matter (DM) content for harvest (32-24% DM), the less mature plants will be much wetter (less than 30%).  For fields with variable maturity, wait until the average whole plant DM for the field is 32-34% DM.  Harvesting wetter forage will increase runoff losses from the silage and make it difficult to get a good fermentation.  If possible, store immature corn silage separately from proper maturity silage.

Check chopper settings and particle size of the material coming out of the chopper. If using the Penn State box, target 10-20% on the top screen and < 40% in the pan. This may require increasing length of cut.  Since ear and kernel development on under-developed corn is poor, kernel processing may not be needed.  Follow normal silage management practices of filling fast, packing and covering the top with plastic or with oxygen limiting barriers.  Immature corn silage is generally high in readily available carbohydrates to support good fermentation, however, it may be low in the natural bacterial population entering the silo on the corn plant. The addition of a lactic acid-based inoculant may be beneficial to stimulate fermentation in this case.  Lastly, give the silo 3-4 months of fermentation before feeding out.

Estimating value for corn silage when it is so variable – is tough.  The sale price of variable maturity or immature corn silage will depend on yield, dry matter content and nutrient composition. Dr. Bill Weiss at Ohio State indicates that immature corn silage is worth about 85% of the economic value of normal corn silage – if it is the same dry matter content.  Dr. Larry Chase provides examples of price calculations that consider the Ohio State conversion and variable DM content.

If the value of “normal’ corn silage = $70/ton (assuming 35% DM), then the value of immature corn silage = $70 * 0.85 = $59.50 (still assumes 35% DM). If the actual dry matter of the immature corn silage is only 27%, then the adjusted price = 27/35 *$59.50 = $45.90/ton.  To ballpark the value of the standing crop, use 70% of the adjusted price. This would be $41.65 for this example of immature corn silage at 27% DM standing in the field.

Penn State researchers have developed a more detailed spreadsheet for pricing standing corn for corn silage based on the value of grain corn.

When using any of these methods for valuing corn for corn silage in 2019, consider that estimating yield of the standing crop may be the most uncertain component in your calculations.  Therefore it may be best to count and weigh trucks or wagons rather than estimate yield.

Nutritional value of this immature and variable crop will present another challenge. In addition to variable moisture content, nutrient composition of the corn silage will also vary with maturity, so periodically collect samples of the chopped forage during harvest to provide information on the nutrient content of the silage for use in ration balancing.  Less mature corn is likely to be higher in crude protein, higher in fiber, higher in sugar and lower in starch than normal corn silage.  Because the fiber in immature corn is more digestible, the energy value of immature silage may be 85-95% of normal, despite the significantly lower starch content.  A wet chemistry analysis may be more accurate than NIR analysis since NIR calibrations for normal corn silage may not accurately predict immature silage composition.

Work with your nutritionist to determine the best use for your variable maturity or immature corn silage.  You may decide to feed immature corn silage only to specific groups of cows or young stock depending on its nutrient composition. Immature corn silage can have higher acetic acid content after fermentation which can decrease dry matter intake if not neutralized. The addition of sodium bicarbonate added to the ration at 0.75% of total ration dry matter may help.

Additional resources:

    1. Working with Immature Corn Silage. August 2013. L. E. Chase, Cornell University.  http://www.ccenny.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/Considerations-for-Working-with-Immature-Corn-Silage-2013.pdf.
    2. Pricing Standing Corn Spreadsheet. Beck et al.  Penn State Cooperative Extension.  http://www.ccenny.com/index.php/2013/08/22/pricing-standing-corn-for-silage-spreadsheet/

For more information about field crop and soil management, contact your local Cornell Cooperative Extension office or your CCE Regional Field Crops and Soils Specialists, Mike Hunter and Kitty O’Neil.

Kitty O’Neil Mike Hunter
CCE Canton Office CCE Watertown
(315) 854-1218 (315) 788-8450
kitty.oneil@cornell.edu meh27@cornell.edu

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Weather Outlook – Aug 1, 2019

NOAA Northeast Regional Climate Center, Cornell University

Last week temperatures ranged from near normal to 4 degrees above normal. Precipitation has ranged from a hundredth of an inch to 1 ½ inches. Base 50 growing degree-days ranged from 110 to 170.

Near normal weather for the next week.

For next week temperatures will run just a degree or two above normal with highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s across the state and lows in the upper 50s to upper 60.  The best chances of rain are Saturday and then next Tuesday/Wednesday.  Overall, do not expect any high rainfall amounts

The seven-day precipitation amounts will range from a hundredth of an inch to one inch.

The 8-14 day outlook (August 8-14) favors below-normal temperatures for most of the state. The precipitation outlook favors near-normal precipitation for most of the state, with slightly below-normal amounts for eastern areas of the state.

Maps of 8-14 day outlooks:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

National Weather Service watch/warnings map:
http://www.weather.gov/erh/

US Drought Monitor
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home.aspx

Drought Impact Reporter:
https://droughtreporter.unl.edu/map/

CLIMOD2 (NRCC data interface):
http://climodtest.nrcc.cornell.edu

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Weather Outlook – July 25, 2019

NOAA Northeast Regional Climate Center, Cornell University

Last week temperatures ranged from 2 to 4 degrees above normal. Precipitation has ranged from a hundredth of an inch to near 4 inches. Base 50 growing degree-days ranged from 110 to 210.

A mostly dry period, with the exception for isolated afternoon thunderstorms, and temperatures warming through the weekend. Next major precipitation will be Tuesday into Wednesday.

Today will be mostly sunny & dry, some isolated afternoon thunderstorms are possible, with temperatures in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Friday temperatures will be in the 80s with sunny conditions. Overnight temperatures will be in the 60s.

Saturday temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s with dry conditions. Overnight temperatures will be in the 60s.

Sunday highs will be in the mid to upper 80s with increasing humidity and a slight chance of isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Overnight temperatures will be in the 60s.

Monday temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s, near 90. Overnight temperatures will be in the mid 60s to low 70s.

Tuesday highs will be in the 80s, some low 90s possible, with showers and thunderstorms possible with a passing slow-moving cold front. Overnight temperatures will be in the mid 60s to low 70s.

Wednesday highs will be in the 80s with lingering showers and thunderstorms. Overnight temperatures will be in the 60s.

The seven-day precipitation amounts will range from a quarter inch to one and a quarter inch.

The 8-14 day outlook (August 1-7) favors above-normal temperatures for all but western NY. The outlook favors above-normal precipitation for all of the state.

Maps of 8-14 day outlooks:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

National Weather Service watch/warnings map:
http://www.weather.gov/erh/

US Drought Monitor
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home.aspx

Drought Impact Reporter:
https://droughtreporter.unl.edu/map/

CLIMOD2 (NRCC data interface):
http://climodtest.nrcc.cornell.edu

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