Weather Outlook – August 22, 2019

A pretty tranquil week is in store for New York.  Temperatures will be very close to normal and there will be little if any rainfall through late Tuesday at the earliest.  Daytime high temperatures will be mainly in the 70s to low 80s at best through Tuesday and a bit warmer on Wednesday (low- mid 80s). Nights will be clear and crisp with lows from the low 50s to about 60 across the state.  By Wednesday lows will be in 60s everywhere.  Over the weekend upstate locations will see lows in the 40s especially in the North Country and Southern Tier, which is normal for late August.  Expect less than an inch of rain for the week. The week 2 period which will take us into early September appears to be near normal temperature-wise, maybe a tad on the warm side.  There will be a weak trough to our west which will give us a few chances of rain in this period, but I would not expect any big rain producers with such a pattern.

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Weather Outlook – August 15, 2019

NOAA Northeast Regional Climate Center, Cornell University

Last week temperatures ranged within 2 degrees of normal. Precipitation has ranged from a quarter inch to 3 inches. Base 50 growing degree-days ranged from 80 to 160.

An active weather pattern expected for the week. Temperatures and humidity will increase for the end of the weekend into next week.

Thursday a week frontal system will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms, a few strong storms could develop with gusty winds, hail, & brief downpours; northern areas of the state will stay dry and sunny. Temperatures will be in the 70s to near 80. Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s with overnight showers and thunderstorms.

Friday scattered showers and thunderstorms will move through, with increased humidity and temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s. Overnight temperatures will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Saturday temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s with afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Overnight temperatures will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Sunday highs will be in the 80s to near 90 with increased chances for shows and thunderstorms with gusty winds. Overnight temperatures will be in the 60s.

Monday will be warm and humid with temperatures in the 80s to near 90. Showers and thunderstorms are possible. Overnight temperatures will be in the 60s.

Tuesday highs will be in the 80s. Overnight temperatures will be in the 60s.

Wednesday highs will be in the low to mid 80s. A cold front is expected to bring cooler temperatures and lower humidity. Overnight temperatures will be in the 60s.

The seven-day precipitation amounts will range from a quarter inch to one and a quarter inches.

The 8-14 day outlook (August 22-28) favors above-normal temperatures for the state, with high probability. The outlook slightly favors below-normal precipitation for northern and eastern areas and near-normal precipitation for the rest of the state.

Maps of 8-14 day outlooks:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

National Weather Service watch/warnings map:
http://www.weather.gov/erh/

US Drought Monitor
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home.aspx

Drought Impact Reporter:
https://droughtreporter.unl.edu/map/

CLIMOD2 (NRCC data interface):
http://climodtest.nrcc.cornell.edu

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Weather Outlook – August 8, 2019

NOAA Northeast Regional Climate Center, Cornell University

Last week temperatures ranged within 2 degrees of normal. Precipitation has ranged from a hundredth of an inch to near 3 inches. Base 50 growing degree-days ranged from 70 to 170.

A cold front will bring strong to severe storms on Thursday, with cooler and dryer weather following.

Today a cold front will bring afternoon to evening showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds, hail, and heavy rain possible; temperatures in the mid 70s to 80s. Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Friday will be cooler and windy with temperatures in the 70s and isolated afternoon showers. Overnight temperatures will be in the 50s.

Saturday temperatures will be in the 70s with mostly dry conditions, a few isolated showers are possible. Overnight temperatures will be in the 50s.

Sunday will be sunny with highs in the 70s and low 80s. Overnight temperatures will be in the 50s with showers overnight.

Monday temperatures will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s with possible showers. Overnight temperatures will be in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Tuesday highs will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Overnight temperatures will be in mid 50s to low 60s. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday into Wednesday.

Wednesday highs will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Overnight temperatures will be in the mid 50s to low 60s.

The seven-day precipitation amounts will range from a hundredth of an inch to one and a quarter inches.

The 8-14 day outlook (August 15-21) favors near-normal temperatures for most of the state; slightly favors above-normal temperatures for southwest NY. The outlook slightly favors below-normal precipitation for all of the state.

Maps of 8-14 day outlooks:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

National Weather Service watch/warnings map:
http://www.weather.gov/erh/

US Drought Monitor
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home.aspx

Drought Impact Reporter:
https://droughtreporter.unl.edu/map/

CLIMOD2 (NRCC data interface):
http://climodtest.nrcc.cornell.edu

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Immature and Variable Maturity Corn Silage for 2019

Kitty O’Neil, Ph.D, Field Crops & Soils Specialist and Team Leader – North Country Regional Ag Team, Cornell University Cooperative Extension

This has been a challenging year to grow corn in the North Country.  Extremely wet weather delayed or prevented field fitting and corn planting, and saturated soil conditions limited plant development in June and early July.  Despite this poor start, some corn fields look remarkably good, almost normal.  But most fields are weeks behind and may be sporting some version of the ‘rollercoaster’ look – with bare spots, replanted areas and plants of variable height and maturity.  Some fields, or parts of fields, will probably not reach full maturity while the best parts may.  Some corn plants will have normal ears; some plants may have unusually small ears or poor grain fill, or even no ears at all, at harvest time. Dr. Bill Cox at Cornell determined that corn requires 750 to 800 GDD86/50 from silking, to reach 32% moisture, nearly harvesting stage.  This variable maturity will present some problems when chopping silage in a few weeks.  Dr. Larry Chase from Cornell University has outlined some key points to keep in mind during corn silage harvest in this sort of year.  He makes 4 main points.

Late planted and thin corn field in St. Lawrence County, July 1, 2019.
Late planted and thin corn field in St. Lawrence County, July 1, 2019. Photo by K. O’Neil.

Yield will be highly variable and difficult to estimate. Dr. Greg Roth at Penn State suggests that silage yield for corn without ears or with poorly pollinated ears may be 1 ton of wet silage yield (30% DM) per foot of plant height. An older study at Cornell by Dr. Bill Cox indicates that silage yields at the dough stage are 65 to 70% of yields at the milk line stage.  In the same study, yields at the silk stage were 40 to 45% of those obtained at the milk line stage.

Some growers like to estimate yield and quality of standing corn so that it may be sold for silage before harvest.  Estimating yield of highly variable fields is risky.  It’s possible to weigh DM from sampled row lengths and calculate yield of the whole field, but the number of samples required for an accurate estimate in these variable fields is prohibitively high.  Instead, as fields are chopped, silage wagons or trucks should be counted and a representative sample of them should be weighed to calculate a more accurate yield and price.

Harvest management requires some additional planning and checking.  When the most mature plants in a corn field are at the proper dry matter (DM) content for harvest (32-24% DM), the less mature plants will be much wetter (less than 30%).  For fields with variable maturity, wait until the average whole plant DM for the field is 32-34% DM.  Harvesting wetter forage will increase runoff losses from the silage and make it difficult to get a good fermentation.  If possible, store immature corn silage separately from proper maturity silage.

Check chopper settings and particle size of the material coming out of the chopper. If using the Penn State box, target 10-20% on the top screen and < 40% in the pan. This may require increasing length of cut.  Since ear and kernel development on under-developed corn is poor, kernel processing may not be needed.  Follow normal silage management practices of filling fast, packing and covering the top with plastic or with oxygen limiting barriers.  Immature corn silage is generally high in readily available carbohydrates to support good fermentation, however, it may be low in the natural bacterial population entering the silo on the corn plant. The addition of a lactic acid-based inoculant may be beneficial to stimulate fermentation in this case.  Lastly, give the silo 3-4 months of fermentation before feeding out.

Estimating value for corn silage when it is so variable – is tough.  The sale price of variable maturity or immature corn silage will depend on yield, dry matter content and nutrient composition. Dr. Bill Weiss at Ohio State indicates that immature corn silage is worth about 85% of the economic value of normal corn silage – if it is the same dry matter content.  Dr. Larry Chase provides examples of price calculations that consider the Ohio State conversion and variable DM content.

If the value of “normal’ corn silage = $70/ton (assuming 35% DM), then the value of immature corn silage = $70 * 0.85 = $59.50 (still assumes 35% DM). If the actual dry matter of the immature corn silage is only 27%, then the adjusted price = 27/35 *$59.50 = $45.90/ton.  To ballpark the value of the standing crop, use 70% of the adjusted price. This would be $41.65 for this example of immature corn silage at 27% DM standing in the field.

Penn State researchers have developed a more detailed spreadsheet for pricing standing corn for corn silage based on the value of grain corn.

When using any of these methods for valuing corn for corn silage in 2019, consider that estimating yield of the standing crop may be the most uncertain component in your calculations.  Therefore it may be best to count and weigh trucks or wagons rather than estimate yield.

Nutritional value of this immature and variable crop will present another challenge. In addition to variable moisture content, nutrient composition of the corn silage will also vary with maturity, so periodically collect samples of the chopped forage during harvest to provide information on the nutrient content of the silage for use in ration balancing.  Less mature corn is likely to be higher in crude protein, higher in fiber, higher in sugar and lower in starch than normal corn silage.  Because the fiber in immature corn is more digestible, the energy value of immature silage may be 85-95% of normal, despite the significantly lower starch content.  A wet chemistry analysis may be more accurate than NIR analysis since NIR calibrations for normal corn silage may not accurately predict immature silage composition.

Work with your nutritionist to determine the best use for your variable maturity or immature corn silage.  You may decide to feed immature corn silage only to specific groups of cows or young stock depending on its nutrient composition. Immature corn silage can have higher acetic acid content after fermentation which can decrease dry matter intake if not neutralized. The addition of sodium bicarbonate added to the ration at 0.75% of total ration dry matter may help.

Additional resources:

    1. Working with Immature Corn Silage. August 2013. L. E. Chase, Cornell University.  http://www.ccenny.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/Considerations-for-Working-with-Immature-Corn-Silage-2013.pdf.
    2. Pricing Standing Corn Spreadsheet. Beck et al.  Penn State Cooperative Extension.  http://www.ccenny.com/index.php/2013/08/22/pricing-standing-corn-for-silage-spreadsheet/

For more information about field crop and soil management, contact your local Cornell Cooperative Extension office or your CCE Regional Field Crops and Soils Specialists, Mike Hunter and Kitty O’Neil.

Kitty O’Neil Mike Hunter
CCE Canton Office CCE Watertown
(315) 854-1218 (315) 788-8450
kitty.oneil@cornell.edu meh27@cornell.edu

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Weather Outlook – Aug 1, 2019

NOAA Northeast Regional Climate Center, Cornell University

Last week temperatures ranged from near normal to 4 degrees above normal. Precipitation has ranged from a hundredth of an inch to 1 ½ inches. Base 50 growing degree-days ranged from 110 to 170.

Near normal weather for the next week.

For next week temperatures will run just a degree or two above normal with highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s across the state and lows in the upper 50s to upper 60.  The best chances of rain are Saturday and then next Tuesday/Wednesday.  Overall, do not expect any high rainfall amounts

The seven-day precipitation amounts will range from a hundredth of an inch to one inch.

The 8-14 day outlook (August 8-14) favors below-normal temperatures for most of the state. The precipitation outlook favors near-normal precipitation for most of the state, with slightly below-normal amounts for eastern areas of the state.

Maps of 8-14 day outlooks:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

National Weather Service watch/warnings map:
http://www.weather.gov/erh/

US Drought Monitor
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home.aspx

Drought Impact Reporter:
https://droughtreporter.unl.edu/map/

CLIMOD2 (NRCC data interface):
http://climodtest.nrcc.cornell.edu

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Weather Outlook – July 25, 2019

NOAA Northeast Regional Climate Center, Cornell University

Last week temperatures ranged from 2 to 4 degrees above normal. Precipitation has ranged from a hundredth of an inch to near 4 inches. Base 50 growing degree-days ranged from 110 to 210.

A mostly dry period, with the exception for isolated afternoon thunderstorms, and temperatures warming through the weekend. Next major precipitation will be Tuesday into Wednesday.

Today will be mostly sunny & dry, some isolated afternoon thunderstorms are possible, with temperatures in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Friday temperatures will be in the 80s with sunny conditions. Overnight temperatures will be in the 60s.

Saturday temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s with dry conditions. Overnight temperatures will be in the 60s.

Sunday highs will be in the mid to upper 80s with increasing humidity and a slight chance of isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Overnight temperatures will be in the 60s.

Monday temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s, near 90. Overnight temperatures will be in the mid 60s to low 70s.

Tuesday highs will be in the 80s, some low 90s possible, with showers and thunderstorms possible with a passing slow-moving cold front. Overnight temperatures will be in the mid 60s to low 70s.

Wednesday highs will be in the 80s with lingering showers and thunderstorms. Overnight temperatures will be in the 60s.

The seven-day precipitation amounts will range from a quarter inch to one and a quarter inch.

The 8-14 day outlook (August 1-7) favors above-normal temperatures for all but western NY. The outlook favors above-normal precipitation for all of the state.

Maps of 8-14 day outlooks:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

National Weather Service watch/warnings map:
http://www.weather.gov/erh/

US Drought Monitor
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home.aspx

Drought Impact Reporter:
https://droughtreporter.unl.edu/map/

CLIMOD2 (NRCC data interface):
http://climodtest.nrcc.cornell.edu

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Weather Outlook – June 27, 2019

NOAA Northeast Regional Climate Center, Cornell University

Last week temperatures ranged within 2 degrees of normal. Precipitation has ranged from a quarter of an inch to over 3 inches. Base 50 growing degree-days ranged from 70 to 150.

Mostly dry day today, possible severe storms on Friday and Saturday.

Today will be a mostly dry day with temperatures in the low to mid 80s and continued humid conditions. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Friday temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s with showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon to evening. Some storms could become severe (main concerns are damaging winds, large hail, and torrential downpours). Overnight temperatures will be in the 60s.

Saturday temperatures will be in the upper 70s to low 80s. There will be some lingering morning showers, then clearing with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. Potential exists for strong to severe storms. Overnight temperatures will be in the 60s.

Sunday highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible before clearing and lower humidity. Overnight temperatures will be in the mid 50s to near 60.

Monday will be mostly dry, some isolates storms are possible, with temperatures in the 70s. Overnight temperatures will be in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Tuesday highs will be in the 80s with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Overnight temperatures will be in the 60.

Wednesday highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s. Overnight temperatures will be in the 60s.

The seven-day precipitation amounts will range from a trace to ¾ “ .

The 8-14 day outlook (July 4-10) favors above-normal temperatures for all of the state and slightly favors above-normal precipitation for part of the state.

Maps of 8-14 day outlooks:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

National Weather Service watch/warnings map:
http://www.weather.gov/erh/

US Drought Monitor
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home.aspx

Drought Impact Reporter:
https://droughtreporter.unl.edu/map/

CLIMOD2 (NRCC data interface):
http://climodtest.nrcc.cornell.edu

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U.S. and N.Y. Corn, Soybean ratings continue to be dismal, USDA crop progress report

While all of the corn crop is still not planted, the first U.S. soybean crop condition rating of the year is sharply below a year ago’s rating.

Corn

In its Crop Progress Report Monday, the USDA pegged U.S. corn planting at 96% complete, behind the 100% five-year average. New York is 75% planted behind last year’s 93% at the same time.

The planting rate is below what the trade had expected.

In its report, the USDA pegged the corn crop as in 56% good/excellent condition, below last week’s 59% rating.

As of Monday, New York’s corn crop was rated 38% good, 16% excellent.

Also, 55% of NY corn has emerged vs. a 82% five-year average.

Soybeans

In its report, the USDA pegged the U.S. soybean planting completion rate at 85% vs. a 97% five-year average. New York is 66% planted this week vs. 92% last year and 86% 5 year average.

The nation’s crop is rated as 54% good/excellent vs. a 73% rating at this time a year ago. New York is rated 41% good, 12% excellent.

Also, 35% of the NY soybean crop has emerged vs. 68% five-year average.

Wheat

The USDA pegged the NY winter wheat heading at 75% vs. 80% last year.

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Weather Outlook – June 20, 2019

NOAA Northeast Regional Climate Center, Cornell University

Last week temperatures ranged from near-normal to 6 degrees below normal. Precipitation has ranged from a tenth of an inch to 2 inches. Base 50 growing degree-days ranged from 40 to 120.

Flash flood concerns as heavy rain is occurring today. High pressure will work into the state on Friday, bringing dry and sunny weather for the weekend. Next chance of rain is Monday into Tuesday.

Thursday there will be multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rain with gusty winds and strong thunderstorms possible. Heavy rain and flash flooding are concerns for some areas. Temperatures will be in the 70s. Overnight lows will be in the 50s.

Friday will have some lingering scattered showers in the morning with clearing conditions from west to east, gusty conditions, and temperatures ranging from the 60s to 70s. Overnight temperatures will be in the low 50s.

Saturday temperatures will be in the 70s with sunny and breezy conditions. Overnight temperatures will be in the low 50s.

Sunday highs will be in the upper 70 and low 80s with increasing clouds in the afternoon. Overnight temperatures will be in the mid 50s to low 60s with showers possible.

Monday temperatures will be in the upper 70s to low 80s with moderate humidity. Overnight temperatures will be in the 60s. A frontal system will bring showers and thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday.

Tuesday highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s. Overnight temperatures will be in the 60s.

Wednesday highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s. Overnight temperatures will be in the 60s.

The seven-day precipitation amounts will range from ¾ ” to 2 ½ ” .

The 8-14 day outlook (June 27 – July 3) favors above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation for the entire state.

Maps of 8-14 day outlooks:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

National Weather Service watch/warnings map:
http://www.weather.gov/erh/

US Drought Monitor|
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home.aspx

Drought Impact Reporter:
https://droughtreporter.unl.edu/map/

CLIMOD2 (NRCC data interface):
http://climodtest.nrcc.cornell.edu

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