Weather Outlook – August 30, 2018

NOAA Northeast Regional Climate Center, Cornell University

Last week temperatures were 2 to 6+ degrees above-normal. Precipitation has ranged from a trace to over 1”. Base 50 growing degree-days ranged from 80-160.

Cooler temperatures to finish the week! Scattered showers possible over the holiday weekend with hot and humid temperatures returning next week.

Today temperatures will be much cooler for most areas, in the upper 60s to lower 80s with lower humidity. Eastern NY will still be warm and humid for part of the day until the cold front exits. Some showers and thunderstorms, associated with the front, will be possible. Overnight lows will be in the 50s to near 60, some upper 40s.

Friday will be in the 70s with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Overnight temperatures will be in the 50s to 60s.

Saturday temperatures will be in the mid 60s to low 80s, with a chance for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms. Overnight temperatures will be in the upper 50s to 60s.

Sunday highs will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s with a chance for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms. Overnight temperatures will be in the upper 50s and 60s.

Monday temperatures will be in the 80s with a chance for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms. Overnight temperatures will be in the 60s.

Tuesday highs will be in the 80s to low 90s with a chance for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms. Overnight temperatures will be in the 60s.

Wednesday highs will be in the 80s to low 90s with continued muggy conditions and a chance of showers. Overnight temperatures will be in the 60s.

The seven-day precipitation amounts will range from a quarter inch to one and a half inches.

The 8-14 day outlook (Sept 5 – 11) favors above-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation for the the state.

Maps of 8-14 day outlooks:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

National Weather Service watch/warnings map:
http://www.weather.gov/erh/

US Drought Monitor
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home.aspx

Drought Impact Reporter:
http://droughtreporter.unl.edu/map

CLIMOD2 (NRCC data interface):
http://climodtest.nrcc.cornell.edu

NYS IPM Weekly Field Crops Pest Report – August 24, 2018

Corn Silage Harvest Quickly Approaching

by Joe Lawrence – PRO-DAIRY

As always this crop season has brought unique opportunities and challenges for corn silage.  It may be helpful to compare and contrast 2018 with the last two years as we look at the potential timing of this year’s harvest.

For much of the state, 2016 was excessively dry to drought conditions through mid-August. However, where the crop survived to see the rains in late August it bounced back a bit, though some yield was already lost. Late summer saw some more normal rain events and a continuation of above average growing degree day (GDD) accumulation. Typically, we would expect the heat to lead to earlier maturity of the corn crop. However, with each shot of rain, the stressed crop seemed to re-hydrate as it attempted to finish ear development, which resulted in an extended dry down period and later than expected harvest.

We don’t need a reminder that the 2017 season was wet and cool from beginning to end. Late planting and below average GDD accumulation delayed harvest well into the fall and some of the crop received a killing frost prior to maturity. Also of note is that GDD accumulation slows down considerably in mid-September, so as the crop neared maturity last year it did so at a much slower pace than it is likely to this year, when it will be at this stage in mid-August to early September.

This season brought excessively dry and drought conditions for much of the state. However, relief from the drought came three to four weeks earlier than it did in 2016, aiding in pollination and more normal late season development of the crop.  Therefore, we should not expect the extended dry down period that was observed in many areas in 2016.

In terms of GDD accumulation, 2018 was above average in May, below average in June and above average in July and August (to date). While the slight deficit in June may have led to a slower start for corn planted in late May, that deficit was erased by the end of July as we continue to accumulate above average heat units.

GDD accumulation for corn planted in early May is even further above average and current forecasts suggest that most areas of the state will end August with GDD accumulation (since May 1) between 125 and 150 GDD’s above average. To translate that into calendar days, based on average GDD accumulation in late August and early September, this puts use seven to 10 calendars ahead of average since May 1.

Past research by Bill Cox at the Cornell Aurora Research Farm provides approximate GDD accumulation needed from silking to the crop reaching 32 percent dry matter (DM) for 96 to 115 day relative maturity (RM) corn (Table 1).  Based on this we would expect that corn below 96 day RM will take 750 GDD or slightly less.

Currently 32 percent DM is considered on the low end of desired harvest DM, target DM ranges are found in Table 2. Therefore, the accumulation of 750 GDD’s after silking represents a good time to start measuring whole plant dry matters.

Using our Corn Silage Hybrid Evaluation program projected crop progress is shown in Table 3a and 3b.

The dry down rate of corn in the field as it nears silage harvest is largely dependent on the weather and health of the crop. A general range is 0.4 to 0.7 percentage points per day.  Using 35 percent DM as a target for harvest, you could expect the crop to reach this four to seven days after it reaches 32 percent DM.

Also, consider that while the crop looks like it will finish fairly strong and produce a good ear, it is not likely to recover the lost yield from early season stressors. This combined with depressed hay crop yields in many areas should be taken into consideration when projecting forage needs for the coming year.

References
Cox, William. 2008. Timing Corn Silage Harvest. Cornell University What’s Cropping Up? Newsletter. Vol. 18, No. 4.

For More Information

Weather Outlook – August 23, 2018

NOAA Northeast Regional Climate Center, Cornell University

Last week temperatures were near normal to 4 degrees above-normal. Precipitation has ranged from less than ½ “ to over 3”. Base 50 growing degree-days ranged from 100-180. There were improvements in drought conditions in western NY and northern NY.

Dry weather into the weekend, increasing temperatures and humidity through next week.

Today temperatures will be in the upper 60s and 70s with lower humidity. It will be a mostly dry day with a few isolated showers. Overnight lows will be in the 50s to near 60, some 40s are possible.

Friday will be in the 70s and low 80s, pleasant and dry. Overnight temperatures will be in the 50s to near 60.

Saturday temperatures will be in the upper 60s to lower 80s, with a chance for evening shower and thunderstorms. Overnight temperatures will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Sunday highs will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s with scattered afternoon thunderstorms possible. Overnight temperatures will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Monday temperatures will be in the mid 70s to low 90s with increasing humidity and a chance of showers. Overnight temperatures will be in the upper 50s to near 70.

Tuesday highs will be in the upper 70s to low 90s with continued muggy conditions and a chance of showers. Overnight temperatures will be in the mid 60s to low 70s.

Wednesday highs will be in the upper 70s to low 90s with continued muggy conditions and a chance of showers. Overnight temperatures will be in the mid 60s to near 70.

The seven-day precipitation amounts will range from a trace to three quarters of an inch.

The 8-14 day outlook (Aug 30 – Sept 5) favors above-normal temperatures for all of the state and slightly favors above-normal precipitation for the western half of the state.

Maps of 8-14 day outlooks:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

National Weather Service watch/warnings map:
http://www.weather.gov/erh/

US Drought Monitor
|http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home.aspx

Drought Impact Reporter:
http://droughtreporter.unl.edu/map

CLIMOD2 (NRCC data interface):
http://climodtest.nrcc.cornell.edu

Weather Outlook –August 16, 2018

NOAA Northeast Regional Climate Center, Cornell University

Last week temperatures were near normal to 4 degrees above-normal. Precipitation has ranged from less than ½ “ to over 4”, isolated areas saw over 8” with flooding. Base 50 growing degree-days ranged from 110-170. Moderate drought continues in part of western and northern NY.

Showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday, drying out for the weekend into next week until unsettled weather returns on Tuesday.

Today temperatures will be in the upper 70s and 80s with showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon in western areas and moving east throughout the evening. There is a potential for heavy downpours and localized flooding. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to near 70 with a cold front bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Friday will be humid with temperatures in the 70 to mid 80s with scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing. Some sever weather is possible, including heavy rain, flash flooding, and gusty winds. Overnight temperatures will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Saturday temperatures will be in the mid 70s and 80s, with lingering morning showers, especially in eastern NY. Some isolated afternoon showers are possible. Overnight temperatures will be in the low 50s to mid 60s and less humid.

Sunday highs will be in the mid 70s and 80s with mostly dry conditions, an isolated afternoon shower is possible. Overnight temperatures will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Monday temperatures will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s with dry conditions. Overnight temperatures will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Tuesday highs will be in the mid 70s to low 80s. Overnight temperatures will be in the 60s. A cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday.

Wednesday highs will be in the 80s with continuing showers. Overnight temperatures will be in the 60s.

The seven-day precipitation amounts will range from one inch up to two and a half inches. Locally heavy rainfall next week will increase these amounts for some areas.

The 8-14 day outlook (Aug 23-29) favors above-normal temperatures for all of the state and slightly favors above-normal precipitation for most of the state, excluding part of southeast NY.

Maps of 8-14 day outlooks:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

National Weather Service watch/warnings map:
http://www.weather.gov/erh/

US Drought Monitor
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home.aspx

Drought Impact Reporter:
http://droughtreporter.unl.edu/map

CLIMOD2 (NRCC data interface):
http://climodtest.nrcc.cornell.edu

2018 New York Conditions Favorable for Downy Mildew in Soybeans

by Jaime Cummings, NYS Integrated Pest Management Field Crops and Livestock Program Coordinator

Yellow flecking on the upper surfaces leaves with purplish sporulation on the lower surface are obvious symptoms of downy mildew (photo by Gary Bergstrom).

The weather has changed from hot and dry to warm and wet in many parts of the state, and that has changed our expectations for soybean diseases this year.  Many of us are seeing downy mildew in soybeans across the state, ranging from low to high incidence and severity, and some are wondering what, if any, management options are recommended.  As a general rule, we have never recommended spraying fungicides for downy mildew because this disease is typically more of a cosmetic issue which doesn’t tend to result in noticeable yield loss.  Though, there have been reports from other states indicating 10-15% yield losses from very severe downy mildew epidemics.  We have no established thresholds for when to pull the trigger for downy mildew fungicide management in New York State, and have no fungicide efficacy data to provide strong recommendations.  And, keep in mind, most of our foliar fungicides available for soybeans are not labeled for downy mildew and would have very limited effect, if any, because downy mildew is an oomycete and is not in the same category as most of the rest of our foliar fungal diseases that are well controlled with many fungicides.  There is limited research-based evidence that strobilurin fungicides may have limited efficacy against downy mildew, but, again, many aren’t actually labeled for downy mildew in NY.  However, Aproach Prima is labeled for downy mildew in soybeans in NY, and can be applied at a 5 – 6.8 fl oz/A rate, (http://www.cdms.net/ldat/ldBA3003.pdf).  Given the general lack of efficacy data from NY or other states, it is unclear whether or not these applications will be cost effective, and should be reserved only for the most severely affected fields.

Weather Outlook – August 9, 2018

NOAA Northeast Regional Climate Center, Cornell University

Last week temperatures were 4-8 degrees above-normal. Precipitation has ranged from less than ½ “ to over 4”, with an additional tenth to 2” over the last 24 hours. Base 50 growing degree-days ranged from 130-190. Moderate drought continues in part of western and northern NY; conditions improved in Otsego & Schoharie.

Seasonable temperatures, only scattered showers and thunderstorms till next week when heavy rain is possible.

Today temperatures will be in the upper 70s and 80s with mostly dry conditions after morning showers move out, humid conditions will linger. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to upper 60s with a cold front bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Friday highs will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s with scattered showers and thunderstorms and lower humidity. Overnight temperatures will be in the mid 50s to near 60.

Saturday temperatures will be in the mid 70s to low 80s, it will be a mostly dry day with some scattered showers and thunderstorms. Overnight temperatures will be in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Sunday highs will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s with mostly dry conditions, an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm is possible. Overnight temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s.

Monday temperatures will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s with widespread showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Overnight temperatures will be in the 60s.

Tuesday highs will be in the mid 70s to low 80s with showers and thunderstorms likely, with heavy rainfall possible. Overnight temperatures will be in the 60s.

Wednesday highs will be in the 80s with high humidity and lingering showers. Overnight temperatures will be in the 60s.

The seven-day precipitation amounts will range from half an inch to one inch for most of the state, up to 2” in southeast NY. Locally heavy rainfall next week will increase these amounts for some areas.

The 8-14 day outlook (Aug 16-27) favors above-normal temperatures for all of the state and favors above-normal precipitation for most of the state, excluding part of southeast NY.

Maps of 8-14 day outlooks:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

National Weather Service watch/warnings map:
http://www.weather.gov/erh/

US Drought Monitor
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home.aspx

Drought Impact Reporter:
http://droughtreporter.unl.edu/map

CLIMOD2 (NRCC data interface):
http://climodtest.nrcc.cornell.edu

NYS IPM Weekly Field Crops Pest Report – August 3, 2018

Weather Outlook –August 2, 2018

NOAA Northeast Regional Climate Center, Cornell University

Last week temperatures were 2 degrees below-normal to 4 degrees above-normal. Precipitation has ranged from less than ¼” to near 3”. Base 50 growing degree-days ranged from 110-160. Moderate drought expanded in part of northern NY; conditions improved in much of the lower half of the state.

Humid conditions with showers and thunderstorms through the end of the week, dryer over the weekend but heat and humidity continue.

Today temperatures will be in the upper 70s and 80s with high humidity, showers and thunderstorms. There is a possibility of severe weather for some areas (damaging winds, locally heavy rain, hail, isolated tornado).  Overnight lows will be in the 60s to low 70s.

Friday highs will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s with high humidity, showers and thunderstorms. The threat of flooding continues for areas that receive heavy rainfall. Overnight temperatures will be in the 60s to low 70s.

Saturday temperatures will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s , showers and thunderstorms will come to an end, western NY will be mostly dry. Overnight temperatures will be in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Sunday highs will be in the upper 70s to upper 80s with mostly dry conditions, an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm is possible. Overnight temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s.

Monday temperatures will be hot, in the 80s to low 90s with a slight chance of a showers or thunderstorm and continued humid conditions. Heat indices could reach mid 90s in some areas, watch for heat advisories. Overnight temperatures will be in the 60s.

Tuesday highs will be in the 80s to low 90s with high humidity, showers likely, and thunderstorms possible with the passage of a cold front. Overnight temperatures will be in the 60s.

Wednesday highs will be in the 80s with high humidity and lingering showers. Overnight temperatures will be in the 60s.

The seven-day precipitation amounts will range from three quarters of an inch to three inches.

The 8-14 day outlook (Aug 9-15) favors above-normal temperatures for all of the state and slightly favors above-normal precipitation for most of the state, excluding part of southeast NY.

Maps of 8-14 day outlooks:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

National Weather Service watch/warnings map:
http://www.weather.gov/erh/

US Drought Monitor
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home.aspx

Drought Impact Reporter:
http://droughtreporter.unl.edu/map

CLIMOD2 (NRCC data interface):
http://climodtest.nrcc.cornell.edu

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