Weather Outlook – July 7, 2016

From Jessica Spaccio, NOAA Northeast Regional Climate Center, Cornell University

Last week temperatures were within 2 degrees of normal for most of the state, parts of southeastern NY were 2 to 6 degrees below normal. Precipitation ranged from a tenth to 1 inch for most areas with isolated areas getting over an inch. Base 50 growing degree-days ranged from 60 to 140.

GDD48_Mar1_July6 GDD48_May1_July6 GDD50_Mar1_July6 GDD50_May1_July6

Hot & humid closing out the week, unsettled weather through Saturday, cooler over the weekend…

Today a week cold front will bring a chance of scattered showers & thunderstorms with temperatures in the mid 80’s to low 90’s. Overnight lows will be in the 60’s.

Friday another cold front will bring the possibility of scattered showers and thunderstorms, isolated torrential rainfall and flooding possible, with highs in the mid 80’s to low 90’s. Lows will be in mid 60’s to low 70’s.

Saturday temperatures will be cooler in the 80’s with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Overnight temperatures will be in the 60’s.

Sunday’s highs will be below normal in the 70’s. Overnight temperatures will be in the mid 50’s to low 60’s.

Monday temperatures will be in the upper 70’s to mid 80’s. Lows will be in the mid 50’s to low 60’s.

Tuesday temperatures will be in the 80’s.  Lows will be in the 60’s

Wednesday temperatures will be in the 80’s with rain possible. Lows will be in the 60’s.

The five-day precipitation amounts will range from ½” to 2” , ranging from the lowest amounts in western NY and the highest amounts in northeast NY.

The 8-14 day outlook (July 14-20) shows an increased chance for above normal temperatures and above normal precipitation.

The Drought Monitor: Moderate Drought conditions have expanded in western NY. The moderate rains in central New York, Long Island, and southern sections of New York prevented deterioration, but was not enough for any improvement. Still, several areas missed out on the beneficial rains, including the eastern Great Lakes region (western New York). The subnormal precipitation has persisted long enough that impacts were being observed across much of the region, along with near- to record low 1-, 7-, 14-, and 28-day average USGS stream flows in parts the eastern Great Lakes region.   July 3 USDA/NASS statistics for statewide topsoil moisture rated short or very short included 51% for New York.

Maps of 8-14 day outlooks:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

National Weather Service watch/warnings map:
|http://www.weather.gov/erh/

US Drought Monitor:
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home.aspx

CLIMOD2 (NRCC data interface):
http://climodtest.nrcc.cornell.edu

 

 

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