New York State Weekly Weather Outlook – October 11, 2012

Jessica Rennells
NOAA Northeast Regional Climate Center, Cornell University

Last week temperatures ranged from 0 to over 3 degrees above normal for most of the state, western NY was 0 to 3 degrees below normal.  Rainfall amounts ranged from a trace to 2 inches; the highest amounts were in the Great Lakes, St Lawrence Valley, and Northern Plateau regions. The Base 50 growing degree-days ranged from 25 to 50,  les than 25 in the Adirondack region.

Today will be sunny with temperatures in the 50’s.  A few lingering showers will move out of the area by midday.  Overnight temperatures will be in the low 30’s to low 40’s.

Friday will be mostly cloudy with scattered showers as a cold front moves through early in the day, then some clearing.   Highs will be in the mid 40’s to low 50’s.  Lows will be in 20’s – widespread frost is expected.  (end of growing season everywhere)

Saturday will be sunny with temperatures ranging in the 50’s, still below normal.  Lows will range from the mid 30’s to low 40’s.  Some showers are expected Saturday night associated with a warm front.

Sunday highs will be in the upper 50’s to mid 60’s with scattered showers.  Overnight temperatures will be in the upper 40’s to low 50’s.

Monday will mostly cloudy with temperatures in the upper 50’s to mid 60’s and a chance for scattered showers.  Lows will be in the mid 30’s to low 40’s..

Tuesday will be partly sunny with temperatures in the upper 50’s to low 60’s.  Lows will be in the mid 30’s to low 40’s.

Wednesday will be partly sunny with temperatures in the low to mid 60’s.  Lows will be in the upper 30’s to low 40’s..

The five-day precipitation amounts will range from 1/10 of an inch to 1 inch. The 8-14 day (Oct 18-24) out look is showing above normal temperatures and precipitation.  Drought Monitor update:  The depiction of abnormally dry conditions (D0) across the Great Lakes region of New York was modified in response to light-to-moderate rains (0.5 -1.5 inches).  Near the eastern shores of Lake Ontario, the area of D0 was trimmed, while slight expansion was included just east of the Rochester area.

Maps of 8-14 day outlooks
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

National Weather Service watch/warnings map
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/hq/

NRCC Drought Page which features the US Drought Monitor map (updated every Thursday)
http://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/page_drought.html

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